BitMEX Research: 2-3 ASIC miner manufacturers will survive in the future
16.06.2020 Roman Petrov
After the bitcoin halving, the trend towards consolidation in the mining equipment manufacturing industry intensified. In the long term, 2-3 players will remain in the industry, according to researchers at BitMEX Research.
They analyzed the history and current situation of the four largest producers of miners and evaluated their prospects.
Researchers noted that Canaan Avalon devices were the first to enter the market in 2014. Already in 2017, the industry was dominated by the later-launched Bitmain with a market share of 75%.
Market shares of miner manufacturers. Source: BitMEX Research
In the next two years, the leader was replaced by other players, primarily MicroBT - a share of 7% and 35% in 2017 and 2019, respectively. Canaan doubled in two years from 6% to 12%. At Ebang, it decreased slightly - from 5% to 4%.
Bitmain, with 46% of the ASIC miner market, remains the leading manufacturer and a force to be reckoned with, researchers said.
They noted that both leaders this year introduced a new line of devices, the Antminer S19 and Whatsminer M30 , which provide energy efficiency at 30 J / TH. The rest will be able to reach this level only in the future and are forced to “play catch-up” with the current flagships of the industry, according to BitMEX.
Energy efficiency of miners. Source: BitMEX Research
Canaan last November entered an IPO in the United States and raised $ 90 million. According to the results of the 6th quarter, the company reported a loss of a comparable amount of $ 115, the researchers recalled. In the first quarter of this year, the company reported a loss of $ 5.6 million.
The company introduced new miners this month, significantly inferior to competitors from Bitmain and MicroBT. Against this background, Canaan shares, which cost IPO $ 9, after its holding almost constantly fell in price. On June 15, the company's stock quotes fell below $ 2.
Canaan and Bitcoin stock prices. Source: BitMEX Research
Bitmain, in addition to the reduction in market share, it is facing a serious conflict in the management - co-founder Zhang Mikri undertakes attempts to regain control over it, which negatively affects the operating activities.
Least of all problems is the rapidly growing MicroBT market share, according to BitMEX. Bitmain tried to legally prosecute the company's founder, its ex-employee Yang Zosin. The last time he was accused of misappropriating $ 15,000. Researchers believe that he was able to solve these problems.
According to them, MicroBT raised $ 700 million in financing last January. For most of 2019, Whatsminer devices were faster than Bitmain asics, BitMEX analysts added.
According to them, consolidation will continue in the industry, which is facilitated by halving. The main problems of the industry, they consider the insufficient quality of corporate governance and undermined investor confidence. Researchers also predict an increase in the life of new miners and a reduction in China's share in the industry.
Recall, according to a previous study, after reducing the block reward, the most profitable bitcoin miners are Whatsminer M30S ++ and Antminer S19 Pro.