Bitcoin stuck & could fall, Gold and Silver are the answer?

Analysts at CryptoQuant have recorded an increase in demand for gold and silver amid macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty. At the same time, Bitcoin continues to trade in a sideways range due to weak domestic demand and pressure from short-term holders.

According to the company, the cryptocurrency market is in a sideways consolidation phase after a correction from local highs. Despite the growth of individual asset classes, the overall momentum is still skewed to the downside.

Over the past three months, precious metals have shown steady growth, while Bitcoin has remained within a range. CryptoQuant explains the divergence by capital flows into traditional defensive assets amid a risk-off regime, expectations of lower real rates, and easier access for institutional investors to the metals market.

Analysts separately noted silver, which has amplified gold's growth due to tighter supply and increased sensitivity to speculative flows.

According to experts, the market still perceives Bitcoin as a risky asset rather than a “safe haven.” In a risk-averse environment, capital is primarily directed towards gold and government bonds, while the first cryptocurrency remains a secondary choice.

CryptoQuant also pointed out that visible demand for Bitcoin has recently moved into negative territory. This indicates a lack of new demand even when prices are held at elevated levels. Additional pressure is being created by short-term investors who are locking in positions near breakeven or at a loss during rebounds.

The base case scenario assumes continued support for gold and silver, while Bitcoin's upside potential will be limited until sustainable demand returns.

Source: CryptoQuant

Silver growth and its impact on digital assets

By the end of 2025, silver will increasingly emerge from the shadow of gold. The current rally reflects not only price dynamics, but also factors such as scarcity, industrial demand, and diversification — topics that are also relevant for the analysis of digital assets.

In December, silver hit a new all-time high above $72 per ounce, adding more than 136% since the start of the year. In terms of growth, the metal has outperformed gold, which has risen by about 65% over the same period, maintaining its status as a traditional “safe haven.”

Silver's market capitalization approached $4 trillion, making it one of the world's largest assets. The price increase is due to geopolitical tensions, changes in monetary policy, and accelerating industrial demand amid high volatility in global markets.

Source: Tradingview.com

1. What is behind the rise in silver prices. The rise in silver prices is supported by a sustained global supply deficit. According to estimates by the Silver Institute, in 2025 it will amount to about 180 million ounces — the fifth consecutive year when production has not kept pace with consumption.

Unlike gold, which is hitting record highs above $4,000 per ounce, silver is benefiting from its dual role as a safe-haven asset and a key industrial metal for solar energy, electronics, and electric vehicles. Limited supply is reinforcing the bullish trend, with an annual deficit estimated at around 120 million ounces amid stagnant production, sanctions, and trade restrictions.

London silver stocks remain depleted, while warehouse reserves in Shanghai have fallen to their lowest level since 2015. Since the beginning of October, approximately 75 million ounces have been withdrawn from COMEX warehouses, while physical silver borrowing rates remain high. According to estimates by journalist and host of The Real Story Michelle McCory, all key trading hubs point to the same thing: supply is under severe pressure.

An additional driver of growth has been industrial demand, primarily from the “green” energy, electronics, and electric vehicle sectors. Over the past decade, the solar industry has tripled its consumption of silver. Structural factors have also increased pressure on the market: restrictions on exports from China and the decision by the US Geological Survey to recognize silver as a critical mineral, which highlighted the vulnerability of global supply chains.

In its final update of the list of critical minerals for 2025, the US Geological Survey added ten more items to silver, including copper, metallurgical coal, potash, rhenium, silicon, and uranium.

According to Michelle McCory, assigning such status usually leads to a review of tariffs, export restrictions, and reserve accumulation strategies. The very possibility of a change in US policy is forcing market participants to be more cautious about exporting metal outside the country.

Additional pressure was created by macroeconomic factors. The US budget deficit in 2025 exceeded $1.78 trillion, and the Federal Reserve's rate cuts led to negative real yields.

As noted by macro strategist EndGame Macro, the rise in silver prices was the result of the simultaneous impact of monetary changes, industrial demand, and geopolitical restructuring, turning the metal into a kind of bridge between weakening fiat systems and new technologies.

2. What the rise of silver means for cryptocurrencies. Against the backdrop of historic growth in silver prices (above the levels of 1980 and 2011), experts see parallels with the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin and other digital assets are now trading at about 30% below their historical highs, despite overall records in the stock market and the commodities segment.

According to the opinion of macro and crypto analyst SightBringer, the rise of silver signals that the old model of trust in fiat currencies is collapsing. Precious metals serve as a “training signal” for Bitcoin — they reflect the growing distrust of traditional currencies, which underlies the appeal of BTC as a scarce digital asset.

COMEX is the leading US commodity exchange.

Bitcoin could fall to $50,000 — Bloomberg Intelligence opinion

Senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence Mike McGlone said that Bitcoin could fall to $50,000. According to the expert, the cryptocurrency is currently “overvalued” relative to gold — the BTC/XAU ratio on December 1 exceeds 20x, while the “fair” valuation is around 13x.

McGlone attributes this to the unstable dynamics of the stock market. He noted that the 120-day volatility of the S&P 500 is falling to its lowest level since 2017. The expert believes that this may signal a possible decline in risky assets, among which Bitcoin traditionally reacts first to changes in investor sentiment.

The publication sparked heated discussion on social media. Some users accused the analyst of bias:

“He is always the first to publish forecasts on a red day for Bitcoin, but remains silent when the market is going up.”

Another participant called McGlone a “fraud” and noted that he has been buying Bitcoin every two weeks for more than eight years and is “in the big profit zone.”

Source: Х

Gold outperformed the stock market over a 25-year period

If you had invested $10,000 in the S&P 500 index in 2000, today that amount would be worth about $77,495. The same amount invested in gold would have grown to approximately $126,596.

Over a 25-year period — despite crises, inflation, and geopolitical turmoil — gold not only preserved the purchasing power of capital, but also outperformed the stock market in terms of total return.

Source: Х

BitMEX forecast for Bitcoin in 2026

1. Why the market may be underestimating Bitcoin. BitMEX analysts believe that the current price of Bitcoin reflects the cautious expectations of market participants. At the same time, according to their assessment, the quotes do not take into account the cumulative effect of macroeconomic factors and factors related to the amount of available liquidity, which may manifest themselves in early 2026.

This primarily concerns possible changes in the monetary environment. If liquidity conditions ease, this could affect capital behavior and the structure of demand for various asset classes, including the crypto market.

2. Why capital has moved into precious metals. The report notes that in 2025, market participants focused on so-called “hard assets” generally correctly assessed macro trends. However, a significant portion of capital was reallocated in favor of gold and silver, rather than crypto assets.

Against this backdrop, precious metals showed sharp growth. Since the beginning of the year, gold has risen in price by more than 70%, according to analysts, and silver by 140-150%. Bitcoin, on the other hand, fell by about 8% and remained on the sidelines of this movement.

This discrepancy is important to consider because it affects the relative valuation of assets and market expectations.

3. The gap in the valuation of gold and Bitcoin. BitMEX draws attention to the large gap between the market capitalization of gold and Bitcoin. The market capitalization of gold is estimated at approximately $31.5 trillion, while that of Bitcoin remains at around $1.7 trillion.

Source: Tradingview.comSubscribe and get access to the GoMining course on cryptocurrency and Bitcoin, which is still free: https://academy.gomining.com/courses/bitcoin-and-miningNFA, DYOR. 

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