Key trends in the crypto industry for 2026 according to a16z

Investment company Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) has presented its annual report with 17 areas that, according to its forecast, will determine the development of the crypto market in 2026. The document covers finance, AI, privacy, and the evolution of blockchain products.

1. Stablecoins as a basic payment layer. These digital assets are becoming the standard for payments and settlements, providing fast and stable transactions without the volatility of traditional cryptocurrencies.

2. Tokenization of real-world assets. Real estate, securities, and other assets will be converted into digital format, making them easier to manage and use in blockchain products.

3. On-chain lending and DeFi with automated capital management. Decentralized platforms allow loans to be issued and received directly on the blockchain, while smart contracts enable automated capital allocation and risk management.

4. Prediction markets and new media formats. Platforms are emerging where participants can predict events and receive rewards for accurate predictions, as well as new media formats integrated with the crypto economy.

5. The transition of the internet to a model where money moves as fast as data. The network is becoming not only informational, but also financial, allowing value to be transferred instantly between participants and platforms.

6. AI agents and digital identities for them. AI bots will be able to interact on the blockchain through their own digital identities, opening up new opportunities for automation and asset management.

7. The growing role of privacy in blockchains. Data privacy is becoming a key element in the ecosystem, ensuring the protection of users and their assets.

8. Rethinking DeFi security. The security of decentralized finance will evolve from the principle of “code is law” to more rigorous formal guarantees and smart contract audits.

9. Crypto technology development and regulatory influence. The development of structurally secure products that are independent of short-term speculative demand, and transparency through digital asset regulation standards in the US will help networks become more autonomous and neutral.

The a16z report shows that the cryptocurrency market continues to integrate with traditional finance, AI technologies, and new digital models, creating an environment where value and information move at almost the same speed.

Source: a16z

Michael Saylor's Bitcoin forecast for 2026

Key points from the interview:

1. Optimism about BTC:

— In 2026, Bitcoin will reach a new level: banks will start storing BTC and issuing loans against it. — Already, about half of the large banks in the United States work with Bitcoin ETFs and accept BTC as collateral.

— The inclusion of traditional finance creates a new layer of demand and liquidity.

2. Halving is no longer the main driver:

— Previously, the four-year cycle was a key factor, but now the daily trading volume of BTC is tens of billions of dollars.

— The next halving will reduce issuance by only $20 million per day against a backdrop of $50 billion in daily liquidity.

— The main drivers of the market are loans backed by BTC, derivatives, and the participation of traditional finance.

3. Companies with BTC on their balance sheets:

— More than 200 companies hold Bitcoin, with Strategy being one of the first.

— Holding BTC is beneficial for both companies and the market.

— Sailor is introducing public debt issuance backed by BTC — a trend that may spread.

4. Digital credit as a new «bond»:

— BTC accounts offer a 10% yield at a money market rate of 4%.

— BTC acts as digital collateral for high-yield credit products.

— The yield on digital credit is 2–4 times higher than that of traditional bonds.

5. BTC vs. stablecoins and altcoins:

— Sailor divides the industry into digital capital (BTC) and digital finance (stablecoins, PoS). — Stablecoins compete with banks, while BTC competes with gold, real estate, and stocks.

— BTC is a long-term asset for storing capital, not a unit of payment.

6. Regulators and institutions:

— 2025–2026 — the first cycle of institutional adoption of BTC.

— Support from the president, the Treasury, the SEC, and the CFTC makes owning BTC a structural advantage.

— The CLARITY Act will set the rules for tokenization and DeFi.

7. What to expect in 2026:

— Public companies will add BTC to their balance sheets.

— Banks will systematically issue loans backed by BTC, «connecting» about $2 trillion in capital.

— New institutions supporting BTC will start a chain reaction and pull the rest along.

Source: a16z

«Precariousness» is Wall Street's keyword for 2026

An analysis of forecasts by 15 major banks conducted by Fortune showed that the one word that will describe the market in 2026 is «precariousness» (precarious).

1. Cautious optimism:

— The S&P 500 index has shown double-digit growth for the third year in a row. Analysts' average target for the end of 2026 is 7,269 points, which implies another +5% growth.

— Vanguard and LPL Financial expect «solid returns,» but warn of growing risks, especially in the technology sector, where an AI bubble may be forming.

2. AI mania on the verge of a bubble:

— JPMorgan notes that tech giants have increased their capital expenditures from $150 billion to $500 billion, with the bulk going to AI infrastructure.

— About 40% of the S&P 500's capitalization is related to artificial intelligence.

— Bank of America warns that the current situation resembles the dot-com bubble, with investors buying on emotion rather than calculation.

— Lazard Asset Management states that the volume of investment in AI exceeds realistic revenue forecasts.

— BCA Research: «Either the market or companies will realize in 2026 that these figures are unsustainable.»

3. Economy and Fed policy:

— The unemployment rate in the US has reached its highest level since 2021 and continues to rise.

— The Fed is ready to cut rates to support the labor market.

— Capital Group warns: “The optimism embedded in valuations leaves no room for disappointment.”

Source: Fortune.com2026 will be a turning point for the crypto market, according to Grayscale

Grayscale believes that the classic «halving-bubble-crash» model no longer works.

1. The end of 4-year cycles. The market is gradually moving away from its rigid link to halving. Instead of sharp overheating and crashes, analysts expect a more sustainable bullish trend fueled by institutional money.

According to forecasts, Bitcoin may update ATH as early as the first half of 2026, but without the extreme euphoria of previous cycles.

2. What will drive the market:

— BTC and ETH as digital gold: the growth of US government debt and the risks of fiat devaluation make crypto assets a defensive capital instrument.

— Regulatory clarity in the US: the expected bipartisan law on the structure of the crypto market will open the door to the full integration of TradFi and blockchain.

— Institutional capital: large funds will begin to systematically enter the market through spot ETFs — slowly, but in significant volumes.

3. Key themes for 2026:

Grayscale highlights several areas of growth:

— BTC and ETH as alternatives to the dollar.

— Tokenization of real assets (RWA).

— AI + blockchain and data decentralization.

— Privacy as a mandatory layer of Web3.

— DeFi 2.0 with a focus on lending.

— Staking as a basic yield.

4. What is overrated:

— Quantum computing does not pose a threat to the market in 2026.

— Government crypto reserves create more media hype than they actually influence the market.

TradFi is an abbreviation for Traditional Finance, meaning traditional financial systems and markets.

Source: Tabtrader.com

The trend toward liquidity depletion in the crypto market, according to forecasters

1. While the stock market and precious metals are growing, cryptocurrencies continue to trade in a sideways range. According to the co-founder of the ETH Strategy protocol under the pseudonym Clouted, «something broke» in the sector after the October crash.

«Since October 10, something serious has been happening. We deserve honest answers, not just speculation and rumors. Since then, there has been no liquidity or demand in the crypto market, only continuous selling,» he noted.

2. What is happening with liquidity. Liquidity is the ability to quickly buy or sell an asset at the current price.

When there is no liquidity, transactions become more difficult and price fluctuations become more pronounced. Clouted emphasized that quantitative easing (when central banks increase the money supply) has returned, but money is not flowing into crypto assets.

The stock market and precious metals, on the contrary, are experiencing a rally: the S&P 500 index rose by almost 0.64%, the Nasdaq Composite by 0.52%, gold renewed its historic high of $4,500 per ounce and rose in price by 70% over the year.

Clouted noted a paradox: global bets on the devaluation of fiat currencies are growing, but cryptocurrencies — one of the main defensive assets — continue to fall. «For an asset class whose key value proposition is insurance against devaluation, this is beyond comprehension,» he added.

3. Big players and holidays. Analysts at QCP point out that the decline in liquidity is related to traders' actions ahead of the holidays. Overnight, open interest in Bitcoin futures fell by $3 billion, and in Ethereum-based products by $2 billion. Open interest shows the total number of open contracts and allows you to assess market activity.

Although leveraged positions (leverage is borrowed funds for trading) have decreased, the market remains sensitive to fluctuations. Historically, Bitcoin has fluctuated by 5–7%

4. Why Bitcoin is falling. According to CryptoQuant, since August, Bitcoin has stopped moving in unison with the Nasdaq and gold. The price is negatively affected by large players (whales) who continue to sell assets. Since November, $3.4 billion has been withdrawn from spot Bitcoin ETFs, and $440 million in less than a month in December. Capital is flowing into defensive assets, stocks are rising due to the hype surrounding AI companies, and Bitcoin remains under pressure from sellers and weak demand.

Realized losses by large investors were one of the factors behind Bitcoin's fall from $124,000 to $84,000. According to CryptoQuant, these sales have ended, but increased volatility remains due to the expiration of $28.5 billion worth of options on the Deribit exchange on December 26.

Options are contracts to buy or sell an asset at a predetermined price. The two key points of concentration of open interest are the $85,000 strike and the $100,000 put.

During the holidays, tax optimization also affects the price: investors are locking in losses before the end of the year to reduce their tax liabilities.

5. What's next. Jean-David Pecino of Deribit called the current market structure a manifestation of «residual optimism» in anticipation of a Christmas rally. This is indicated by the increase in funding rates from 0.04% to 0.09%, which suggests a return of long positions with leverage amid still weak market depth.

Experts note that movements during Christmas week are usually technical in nature and often roll back in January when liquidity returns.

Michael van de Poppe considers Bitcoin's rebound from $90,000 to be «a good sign for now.» According to him, the key task for the market is to hold the $86,000 level as support.

Source: Х.com

How Pantera Capital sees the crypto market in 2026

2026 will not be just another cycle for crypto, but a transition point to a new market architecture. According to analysts at Pantera Capital, the industry is shifting from speculation to infrastructure, where AI, stablecoins, privacy, and real assets will play a key role.

1. Bitcoin and the quantum agenda. Quantum computing will cease to be an abstract threat. There is no real risk to Bitcoin yet, but institutional players will begin to incorporate quantum protection as standard. Security will come to the fore.

2. Stablecoins are replacing banking rails. Major fintech companies — Stripe, Ramp, and Brex — will begin to use stablecoins en masse for international transfers. The reason is simple: they are faster, cheaper, and independent of banking infrastructure.

3. Crypto lending will be relaunched through AI. Artificial intelligence will analyze on-chain data, transaction history, and user behavior. As a result, loans will become more accessible, faster, and more flexible than in traditional banks.

4. Prediction markets will change format. The sector will split into two directions. One will be financial instruments with leverage and derivatives. The second will be a cultural environment for enthusiasts, where participation and community are more important than profitability.

5. AI will start paying on its own. AI agents will automatically pay for services through the x402 protocol, which is similar to Apple Pay but without human involvement. For a number of projects, such payments will bring in more than 50% of revenue. Solana will surpass Base in terms of microtransaction volume.

6. AI will become standard in crypto applications. Project analysis, on-chain metrics, and trading ideas will be accompanied by built-in AI assistants. This will cease to be a feature and become a basic function.

7. Tokenized gold — the driver of RWA. In the real asset sector, tokenized gold will be the main beneficiary. It will allow you to bypass the limitations of the physical market and protect yourself from currency risks.

8. Privacy-as-a-Service is coming to corporations. Ready-made privacy solutions and a unified Dev-Ex for developers will appear. Privacy will cease to be a niche for enthusiasts and will become a corporate standard.

9. Consolidation of companies with crypto reserves. Companies holding cryptocurrency on their balance sheets (DAT) will begin to merge. Only large and stable players will survive.

10. The line between tokens and stocks will blur. Governance tokens without real control will face a crisis. They will be replaced by tokens with the right to exchange for stocks and a clear legal status.

11. Perpetuals, stablecoins, and a new generation of AMM. Hyperliquid will strengthen its leadership in the perpetual contract market. USDC will cede market share to the profitable stablecoins USDe and USDH on DEX. Proprietary AMMs will go beyond a single blockchain, account for more than 50% of trading on Solana, and even begin to be used for RWA valuation.Subscribe and get access to the GoMining course on cryptocurrency and Bitcoin, which is still free: https://academy.gomining.com/courses/bitcoin-and-miningNFA, DYOR. 

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